Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.017227 0.019547 0.022071 0.025022 0.028381 0.032085 0.036484
2025-04-06 0.013269 0.016369 0.020039 0.024710 0.030507 0.037476 0.046510
2025-04-13 0.010794 0.014089 0.018218 0.023785 0.031113 0.040456 0.053321
2025-04-20 0.009701 0.013264 0.017944 0.024560 0.033705 0.045952 0.063682
2025-04-27 0.008813 0.012543 0.017646 0.025163 0.036006 0.051157 0.074075
2025-05-04 0.008147 0.012019 0.017511 0.025908 0.038490 0.056761 0.085513
2025-05-11 0.007330 0.011169 0.016795 0.025688 0.039485 0.060227 0.094066
2025-05-18 0.006704 0.010524 0.016297 0.025708 0.040786 0.064200 0.103701
2025-05-25 0.006075 0.009805 0.015602 0.025328 0.041383 0.067078 0.111807
2025-06-01 0.005692 0.009432 0.015402 0.025700 0.043190 0.072001 0.123688
2025-06-08 0.005244 0.008906 0.014901 0.025511 0.044023 0.075357 0.133182
2025-06-15 0.005024 0.008740 0.014973 0.026285 0.046545 0.081758 0.148569
2025-06-22 0.004538 0.008080 0.014162 0.025473 0.046252 0.083310 0.155541
2025-06-29 0.004179 0.007611 0.013643 0.025132 0.046771 0.086353 0.165584
2025-07-06 0.003770 0.007014 0.012841 0.024191 0.046080 0.087086 0.171256
2025-07-13 0.003645 0.006929 0.012960 0.024980 0.048719 0.094289 0.190252
2025-07-20 0.003505 0.006804 0.012990 0.025594 0.051067 0.101127 0.209185
2025-07-27 0.003393 0.006721 0.013091 0.026351 0.053760 0.108872 0.230747
2025-08-03 0.003176 0.006410 0.012722 0.026128 0.054430 0.112577 0.244126
2025-08-10 0.003003 0.006175 0.012484 0.026148 0.055600 0.117403 0.260390
2025-08-17 0.002803 0.005866 0.012070 0.025762 0.055864 0.120327 0.272711
2025-08-24 0.002693 0.005738 0.012017 0.026140 0.057816 0.127050 0.294302
2025-08-31 0.002539 0.005500 0.011715 0.025948 0.058484 0.130999 0.309844